Market update on granular urea

 Market update – granular urea

The table below shows price changes in EU and US natural gas, fertilizers and crops compared to previous blog.

Source: Refinitiv Datastream

It's been reported that granular urea has been traded lower in recent weeks, according to ADM Agri. This does not match with our data from Refinitiv (which are American prices), so we assume ADM Agri are referring to European granular urea. 

 

Supply side –

China has increased its urea production the last weeks to record highs, with a utilization rate of 85 % of its capacity. On the other hand, due upcoming inspections from the CIQ in April, it is anticipated that exports will start up in mid-May. (Sparebank 1 Markets, 2024).

Falling gas prices have stabilized at a low level, and with less uncertainty. This can lead to producers coming back into the market, and pressure down the prices.

Demand side –

Low inventories in the US have given western producers optimism. In addition, upcoming demand from Latin America is building expectations. (Sparebank 1 Markets, 2024).

The farmer economy remains soft, after still bad news and outlook in the wheat market. On the other hand, wheat prices have stabilized in the last weeks. Russian crops are reported for 2024 to increase, and they continue to sell wheat under the prices from EU and US farmers. (ADM-Agriculture, 2024).

We can still not find information about the Indian announcement.

 

 

Sources:

-         Sparebank 1 Markets. (2024). Fertilizer weekly. Market report. Oslo.

AMD-Agriculture. (2024). Market report, Thursday 28 March 2024. Accessed from: https://www.adm-agri.co.uk/thursday-28-march-2024/

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