Market update – granular urea

Down below you can see the price changes in European and American natural gas and urea from the last blog report until now:



The price for different types of urea has remained flat the last two weeks. Granular urea CFR New Orleans has had a slight decrease in price, but apart from that the prices are at the exact same level as of February 12th 2024.

Supply side:

The American natural gas price has increased 6,9% during the same period, while the Dutch TTF price has decreased with 3,9%. According to the US Energy Information Administration, The United States was the biggest supplier of LNG to Europe in 2023.



As shown in the figure, the import volume to Europe has an increasing trend. Because of the increase in the Henry Hub price during the period, it could be an indicator of Europe being even more dependent on American natural gas.

There has been no significant news about China returning to the global fertilizer market and is not mentioned in ADMs weekly report or other news channels. In additions no news from the North African producers.

 

Demand side:  

Wheat prices has traded marginally lower the past week, although weather risk on the US plains is increasing due to cold forecasts, and big swings in temperature, (ADM-agriculture, 2024) We believe some crop can take damaged from this frost, but not dramatically, to support a big rally in the prices, stimulating to increase nitrogen demand.

According to ADM-agriculture 2024 the market is waiting in relation to the announcement from India, that is anticipated in the first half of March. They also state problems adding fertilizer due to wet weather. As prices on fertilizer has not increased over the last two weeks, ahead of spring season, framers in EU and US has probably made their procurements.

 

References:

-       ADM Agriculture Ltd. (2024). Market report, Thursday 29th February 2024. (Read 3. March 2024) Accessed from: https://www.adm-agri.co.uk/reports-news-events/market-reports/

-       US Energy Information Administration (2024). Today in Energy, Thursday 29th February 2024. Accessed from: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61483

 

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