Ureabloggen

  Market update – granular urea   The table below shows price changes in Dutch and US natural gas, fertilizers and crops compared to previous blog.    Source: Refinitiv Datastream     The last two weeks the price of granular urea has fallen from 424.39 to 336.21 USD/ ton. In addition, a decrease in the Henry Hub gas price to 1.72 from 1.84 USD/ MMBtu has occurred during the period. It is not that dramatic, since the Henry Hub price has had this volatility around 1.7 $/MMBtu the last three months. With cheaper urea production, demand should increase according to the fundamentals.   We believe that the market is approaching the floor of the falling urea price.   According to ADM Agri the DAP market has been weak the past two weeks.     Supply side   Rumours from China, presented by both ADM-Agri and TDN-Finance, said that due to high domestic prices in China, exports may be suspended. This is not confirmed, but...

  Market update – granular urea The table below shows price changes in EU and US natural gas, fertilizers and crops compared to previous blog. Source: Refinitiv Datastream It's been reported that granular urea has been traded lower in recent weeks, according to ADM Agri. This does not match with our data from Refinitiv (which are American prices), so we assume ADM Agri are referring to European granular urea.    Supply side – China has increased its urea production the last weeks to record highs, with a utilization rate of 85 % of its capacity. On the other hand, due upcoming inspections from the CIQ in April, it is anticipated that exports will start up in mid-May. (Sparebank 1 Markets, 2024). Falling gas prices have stabilized at a low level, and with less uncertainty. This can lead to producers coming back into the market, and pressure down the prices. Demand side – Low inventories in the US have given western producers optimism. In addition, upcoming d...